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          NFL Nation

          Redskins numbers don't add up

          • John Keim, ESPN Staff WriterNov 18, 2014, 12:15 PM ET
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              John Keim covers the Washington Commanders for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2013 after a stint with the Washington Post. He started covering the team in 1994 for the Journal Newspapers and later for the Washington Examiner. He has authored/co-authored four books. You can also listen to him on 'The John Keim Report', which airs on ESPN Richmond radio, and follow him on Twitter @john_keim
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          Jumping inside the stats lab for some telling numbers on the Washington Redskins, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information:

          • Yards per game is such a hollow stat. The Redskins rank 10th defensively and eighth offensively. Does anyone really think they are top 10 in both areas? The easy answer: No. And all you have to do is look at points per game on both sides of the ball to measure their effectiveness. While the defense catches the brunt of the criticism, it’s the offense that was supposed to be better.

          • The Redskins are 24th in points allowed and 22nd in points scored per game. Of the bottom 12 teams in points per game on offense, only one (Detroit) has a winning record. And of the bottom 12 in points allowed per game, only one (Indianapolis) has a winning record. It’s not as if yards allowed don’t matter (only three teams in the top 12 have a losing record; it’s the same number for yards per game offensively). But to measure a unit, you must discuss yards and points per game.

          • The Redskins rank sixth offensively at 5.99 yards per play. That’s not far off from their success in 2012, when they led the NFL at 6.17 yards per play. The defense is 19th in yards per play allowed at 5.47.

          • But situational football matters, too. That’s where the Redskins fall short again -- on both sides. On third downs, they rank 20th defensively (42.1 percent conversions) and 29th offensively (34.4). The latter stems from too many third-and-longs, as well as the overall play at quarterback.

          • The Redskins have allowed only 30 trips inside the red zone -- 19 teams have faced more. They’re 16th in overall red-zone defensive efficiency with 16 touchdowns allowed. Meanwhile, on offense, 20 teams have been in the red zone more than Washington and the Redskins rank 17th in this area (29 trips, 16 touchdowns).

          • The Redskins have faced five offenses ranked in the bottom 12 of points per game; four of them have scored more than their season average against Washington. They faced three defenses in the bottom 12 and in each case scored less than what those teams give up on average.

          • The Redskins are now minus-62 in points-off-turnover differential -- worst in the NFL. Believe it or not, they were plus-6 last season in part because the defense created 26 turnovers that turned into 94 points. This season, Washington has scored an NFL-low nine points off nine turnovers.

          • The turnovers are what have really hurt the defense. Their defensive metrics measure favorably to the final seven games of 2012, when they were praised for their performance. In the red zone and on third down they’re much better now (in this stretch in 2012, their red-zone percentage was 57.9 and their third-down conversion rate was 44.7). The difference: In 2012, they caused 15 turnovers in the final seven games and 31 for the season. Now they make bad plays and don’t compensate with good ones.

          • Meanwhile, the offense has turned it over 20 times. They’ve fumbled the ball away seven times -- and the average recovery is made at the opposition’s 44-yard line (sixth in the NFL). The Redskins allow points on 57.1 percent of those fumbles lost. The 13 interceptions have hurt worse. The opposition’s average drive after an interception starts at the Washington 41 -- only six teams have faced worst starting field position.

          • Houston is a good comparison here. The Texans’ average field position after an interception is the 41.4-yard line. The Texans have run 48 snaps in these situations to Washington’s 57. Houston has allowed a touchdown on 25 percent of these trips and points on 37.5 percent. The Redskins have allowed a touchdown on 45.5 percent of these trips and points 63.6 percent of the time. Houston is the reverse of the Redskins’ defense: 30th in yards allowed; eighth in points allowed.

          • This one might surprise you: The Redskins are first in the NFL at limiting yards after contact on receptions and seventh against runs. I don’t care who’s coaching the defense next season, the Redskins need a playmaker. They can be more sound -- and execute assignments better, too. But you’ll receive penance for your defensive sins if you make big plays. The defense makes very few.